The fuel price shock drove diesel prices up 82.7% in Nigeria between February 23 and August 31, 2026, UNCTAD reports. The agency measures that rise in US dollars in its Trade and Development Report 2026.
The UN trade and development agency says the steepest fuel price rises occurred in developing countries, mainly in Asia and Africa. Higher energy costs can also reach households through food and transport bills, according to UN News.
How the fuel price shock differs across countries
UNCTAD’s comparison uses GlobalPetrolPrices data. The chart shows price rises for two fuels. These are changes over time, not a list of where fuel costs most.
Selected fuel price increases, February 23–August 31, 2026
Source: UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report 2026, Figure I.7; GlobalPetrolPrices data
Data as of: 2026-08-31
These selected increases are measured in US dollars, not local currencies; they do not rank absolute pump prices.
| Economy and fuel | Price increase |
|---|---|
| Nigeria — diesel | 82.7% |
| Lebanon — diesel | 73.6% |
| Peru — diesel | 66.7% |
| Myanmar — gasoline | 50.7% |
| Nigeria — gasoline | 48.1% |
For comparison, UN News reports that diesel rose about 9% in Ireland and gasoline about 3% in Sweden over the same period. Taxes, subsidies, local pricing rules and exchange rates help explain why one oil shock produces different bills.
However, the impact reaches beyond drivers, UN News explains. When diesel costs more, businesses pay more to deliver goods and may pass those costs to shoppers. Households can therefore face higher prices even if they never fill a fuel tank.
Import bills leave less room for other needs
To show who is exposed to the fuel price shock, UNCTAD also looks at trade. It compares net fuel imports with gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services an economy produces. Net imports are import spending minus export earnings. In 2023, that burden equaled 25.1% of output in Cabo Verde and 19.1% in Lebanon.
According to UN News, a higher fuel bill leaves less money for imports such as food, medicines and equipment. As a result, governments with strained budgets have less room to help households cope with higher costs.
A separate outlook for global prices
The World Bank’s outlook for global commodity prices provides broader context. It forecasts a 23% rise in 2026, followed by a 7% decline in 2027. Those forecasts cover world markets, while UNCTAD’s figures track past changes at the pump.
The bank expects energy prices to rise 32% in 2026. It forecasts Brent crude at an annual average of $91 a barrel in 2026 and $79 in 2027. Annual averages differ from prices on any single trading day.
To limit the next fuel price shock, UNCTAD calls for a wider mix of energy sources and affordable renewable power. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s forecast assumes conflicts that affect supply do not grow much worse. The bank says further disruption could push energy prices above its baseline.
Sources: UNCTAD report, World Bank, UN News
