The World Bank expects commodity prices to rise by 23% in 2026 before falling by 7% in 2027, according to its October 28 outlook. The forecast covers international commodity markets, including energy, agricultural products and metals.
The bank identifies several pressures on supplies: conflict in the Middle East, disruption to Black Sea grain shipments and weather risks linked to El Niño. Its baseline projection assumes that conflicts affecting global supplies do not intensify substantially.
Commodity prices: energy and food forecasts
Energy prices are projected to increase by 32% this year. The bank expects Brent crude to average $91 a barrel in 2026 and $79 in 2027. These are annual average forecasts, rather than predictions for prices on a particular trading day.
Food commodity prices are expected to rise by about 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027. Together, the increases would amount to approximately 18% over the two years. Higher fuel and fertilizer costs add to the pressures on agricultural production.
Oil inventories and metals
Reuters reported that depleted oil inventories have reduced the buffer available to absorb additional supply disruptions. Global oil production is projected to decline by 5.2% this year, while consumption is expected to fall by 2.5%.
The outlook also projects a 25% increase in metals prices in 2026. Supply constraints and demand associated with renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centers are contributing to the rise. Precious metals are forecast to increase by 40%, reflecting demand during geopolitical and economic uncertainty, Reuters reported.
Risks to the outlook
The projected easing in overall commodity prices next year remains conditional. Reuters reported that further disruption to energy and grain supplies, combined with severe El Niño conditions, could keep food prices higher than the baseline forecast.
The figures describe changes in commodity prices, not equivalent increases in every household bill or supermarket purchase. They also distinguish food, which is forecast to become more expensive in 2027, from the broader commodity index, which is expected to decline.
Sources: World Bank — October 2026 outlook, Reuters via StreetInsider.
