EU emissions fell by 1.6% in 2025, the European Environment Agency (EEA) said in a report released on November 9, 2026. Its early estimates put net greenhouse gas emissions 39% below their 1990 level.
The EEA estimates that the annual fall amounts to 46 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. But meeting the EU’s 2030 target will require average yearly cuts of 153 million metric tons from 2026 to 2030, it says.
EU emissions cuts depend on policies still to come
The EEA’s outlook draws a clear line between laws already in place and measures governments still plan to introduce. Existing policies would deliver a 48% net cut by 2030 compared with 1990, according to national projections compiled by the agency.
Including planned measures raises that figure to 54%, just one percentage point short of the legally binding 55% target. The EEA says those plans must become action; the forecast does not mean the cuts have already been secured.
The EEA’s figures below compare the estimated reduction already achieved with two possible paths to 2030. All use 1990 as the baseline.
EU net emissions cuts: estimates, projections and target
Source: EEA, Trends and projections in Europe 2026, pp. 15–16
Data as of: 2026-11-09
Planned policies bring the projected 2030 reduction to 54%, compared with the binding 55% target. Projections are conditional, not achieved cuts.
| Scenario | Reduction from 1990 |
|---|---|
| 2025 estimate | 39% |
| 2030: existing policies | 48% |
| 2030: including planned policies | 54% |
| 2030: binding target | 55% |
Transport and buildings lag behind energy supply
So far, energy supply has accounted for almost 70% of the EU’s emissions decline between 2005 and 2025, the EEA says. The agency links that change to less use of coal and oil, alongside growth in renewable energy.
Yet progress differs across sectors. The report estimates that domestic transport emissions rose 0.3% in 2025 and building emissions rose 0.8%. Energy supply emissions fell 1.2% over the same period.
For households, the shift involves decisions about heating, home upgrades and transport, the EEA says. Its report identifies costs and energy prices as barriers: electricity that costs more than gas can weaken the incentive to switch.
Why the word “net” matters
The headline EU emissions figure includes land use and forests, the EEA says. It counts both gases released into the air and carbon taken out. To get the net figure, the amount removed is taken off the amount released.
The report explains that managed land can release gases but also store carbon. Trees and soils can absorb carbon, while changes in land use can release it.
Early estimates show that the EU’s land sector removed an extra 25 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025. But the EEA says its average net carbon sink in 2015–2024 was 31% smaller than in the previous decade.
So a fall in net EU emissions can have two causes: fewer gases released or more carbon removed. The EEA warns that aging forests, harvesting and disturbances such as drought and fire put those removals at risk.
Likiweeks’ coverage of the October heat record explains the separate measure of global temperature and the long-term Paris warming limit.
Next steps for EU emissions
The EEA says governments need to carry out their plans in full and on time to meet the 2030 goal. Its report points to faster cuts in transport, buildings and agriculture, alongside efforts to protect and strengthen natural carbon stores.
Sources: EEA report, EEA summary
