Asteroid 2024 YR4 has sparked global interest due to its potential risk of colliding with Earth in December 2032. While initial estimates suggest a small probability of impact—currently 1.3%—astronomers stress that further observations will likely refine these odds.
Discovery of Asteroid 2024 YR4
The asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, just two days after its close approach to Earth. Measuring between 130 and 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) across, it is now moving away and gradually fading from view.
Scientists at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency (ESA) are tracking its trajectory. Current models estimate that in 2032, 2024 YR4 will pass within 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth—though uncertainties leave open the possibility of an impact.
What Would an Asteroid Collision Cause?
If asteroid 2024 YR4 collides with Earth, the damage could be significant. The Tunguska event in 1908, caused by a similar-sized space rock, flattened 800 square miles of Siberian forest. If composed of iron, it could create a crater; if made of rock, it might cause an atmospheric explosion, known as an airburst.
Impact Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4
The impact probability currently sits at 1.3%, or roughly 1 in 83. This places 2024 YR4 at a level 3 on the Torino Scale—a measure of asteroid risk—warranting continued observation.
Historically, asteroid impact probabilities tend to decrease as more observations refine orbital paths. Most likely, additional tracking will rule out a 2032 impact entirely.
Future Tracking and Defense Plans
Although 2024 YR4 is becoming harder to observe, astronomers plan to monitor it through April 2025 using advanced telescopes. A key opportunity comes in December 2028, when it will make another close approach, allowing scientists to gather more precise data on its orbit, size, and composition.
If an impact remains possible, planetary defense measures could be explored. NASA’s DART mission has already demonstrated asteroid deflection capabilities. If necessary, evacuation plans could be developed for the predicted impact zone.
Should We Worry About a Potential Asteroid Impact?
Experts say no—at least not yet. While the asteroid’s size warrants close observation, refined calculations will likely rule out an impact.
“The most likely outcome is that further observations will rule out an impact,” said astronomer David Rankin. Scientists will continue tracking 2024 YR4 to ensure any risk is fully understood and, if needed, mitigated.